Forex-Daily Review: Watch SPMIB für Gewinne vor den offiziellen Bericht der Troika

The market is very concerned with the $31.5 billion tranche of the Greek bailout, which has been fixed since June 2012. As far as expected, were no big decisions at its meeting yesterday in Eurogorup and nothing should be expected from the today's EcoFin meeting in Greece.
The draft report suggests troika that Greece will receive a 2-year extension of its fiscal policy objectives. This means that Greece now 120% debt ratio in 2022 instead of to reach by 2020. It is expected that Greece additional €17.6 billion cost.
After troika, Greek GDP contract is of 6.0% in the year 2012 and 4.3% in 2013. But in 2014 growth of + 0.6% to wait and + 2.9% in 2015. What could not be seen, as the most important bear trigger on the global markets, if the official report of the troika will be released on Saturday (November 17) the privatization program which was classified as "disappointing".
Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker confirmed the heads of the eurozone finance ministers group, that a meeting on Greece with another meeting of the Eurogroup take place on November 26 on 20 November will be held. In today's meeting a further Summit can be confirmed November van Rompuy EU on 22-23. The market is always tired virtually no concrete decisions of State and heads of Government, therefore the strong weakness in the European indexes of these endless meetings of the euro-zone.
Today's attention are the group which will discuss legislation-2 k, part of the tax treaty of the compact on the EcoFin meeting. The legislation-2 k includes the assessment of budgets under the excessive deficit procedure and a draft budget monitoring on euro-zone countries, which can be financially unstable.
Despite the financial noise of the SPMIB (index performance for the FTSE MIB index (Milano Italia Borsa) is ready for some strong growth on the hourly charts.)
Immediate danger to reverse head of SKS (H & S) where 14.984 is expected, the downside of the European index of consumer prices to limit. Profits are expected to be seen in direction of 15.227 (38.2% Fibonacci), then 15.378 (50% Fibonacci).
The bullish Outlook for SPMIB remains valid as long as the price above 14.910 remains.
Italian prosecutors have filed, charges against the former President of standard & poor's (S & P) and the other six official credit rating agencies for the demotion of Italy, which destabilized the country and the European debt crisis deepened.

Forex daily review: Noda dissolves the House of Commons and prepares for elections, USD/JPY higher spikes

USD/JPY cheered in the early parts of the European session, many traders leave the perhaps false fears on FX confused intervention by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) raised. Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda pledged to dissolve Parliament during the Asian session, and head for snap elections in December despite polls forecasting who may lose his party. The market was this political movement by 16 November expected, as Noda said to dissolve the Parliament by Friday, when the opposition agreed to key reforms.

Shinzo Abe said on Thursday that the BOJ unlimited easing measures to reach an inflation target of 2% - 3% to Japan deflation pull out should allow. As the latest polls prefer him, win the snap elections, the market fears that the BOJ now employ aggressive easing measures and dumped the yen against a basket of currencies. USD/JPY gained + 1.98% (157 PIPs) as we head into the European session.
The ruling Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) agreed to head snap elections on December 16 with campaigns that begin on December 4.

Recent gains in dollar-Yen-fit perfectly mean long term technical analysis for the couple on July 19, 2012.
The rating agency Fitch revised the Outlook for Ireland on negative, confirm the rating of BBB + stable. Although it seems that the bullish assessment action can add mood on global markets is a bold reminder of Moody's investors service to Britain.
Moody's credit risk annual report according to possibly Britain's AAA rating due to weak economic data and risk the European debt crisis. Moody's wrote, that they will change the 2013 British AAA rating and Outlook in the first few months. Today's retail sales will be given by global investors extra attention data at 09: 30 GMT, as a further deficit should be accompanied with the heavy sales of GBP against major currencies.
For the US meeting, State Manufacturing can claims of unemployment and the Empire index is distorted at 13: 30 GMT due to Hurricane Sandy. Power outages and damaged factories can contribute to a moderate decline in the manufacturing sector, which can stress the SP500 today's trading session.
Yesterday's Federal open market Committee (FOMC) statement revealed that members want more quantitative easing (QE) continue a series of fed, when the current operation twist ends in December. I expect continued moderate gains in gold as a result that suits my technical analysis for the precious metal on November 9.
China is considering securities regulatory Commission (CSRC), a short sale system extend, absorb funds from various institutions before you allow loans to their customers on short selling brokerages. The new system can be started before the end of this year. As more funds for shorting purposes available, this could very well intensify bearish market sentiment on global markets.
XI Jinping was elected General Secretary of the Communist Party of China and the next President of China be replaced likely to Hu Jintao. Li Keqiang, now expected to end March 2013 will be the new Prime Minister.

Forex daily review: Gold round massive strikes in Europe even more optimistic

EUR/USD spiked from 1.2682 to the 1.2726 on the message that received € Greece 44 billion by the European Union in a single payment (keep in mind that the delayed installment is only 31.5 billion €). Win quickly evaporates as the market digested fresh news and realized the $44 billion is not new money, but a group of several delayed loans. EUR/USD gains were from the large bears, the rate pushed down again after 1.2671 guzzled.

Euro-dollar is on hold its hard-earned gains at the time of writing this article in spite of the recent reports in the German newspaper Handelsblatt, preparing to leave the IMF the Greek aid programme. For the present session be the yesterday's rattle through making Spain an imminent bailout request is, after Spain. Decent buying Italian bonds 10 years was known by domestic accounts and 10-year Spanish bond by us funds.

Forex traders will focus on Spanish yield curve as a clear indication whether Spain has actually asked for a bailout. If the curve steepens quickly it should be through the activation of the OMT (monetary purchases) programme, which is probably only occur in a scenario that Spain the EU financial support asked.

European focus Italy Dipartimento be del Tesoro BTP auction. Auction results are scheduled to be released at 10: 10 pm GMT. Shortly after the German finance agency is a new 2-year benchmark 0.00% December 2014 treasure for up to 5 billion €.

The German auction results are at 10: 30 pm GMT, minutes after the Italian BTP auction.

The BOE inflation report at 10: 30 am GMT will attract attention of the Forex trader. Traders looking for clues to a possible extension of the Central Bank quantitative easing (QE) program.

Forex daily review: France says au revoir AAA rating

The EU crisis is France-AAA rating to Aa1 as the Agency, held by a negative Outlook downgraded not past, but as credit agency Moody. The European equities and indexes sink as a result of this downgrade on Europe's second-largest economy.
This unexpected downgrade means that more downgrades some more countries in the future are subject to. This is another indication, the current global rescission is not over yet and the global economic state is not positive and will not soon be resolved.
EU Finance Ministers meet in Brussels this week on Thursday to discuss Greek bailout aid amounting to $56 billion, due to the differences between delay has the International Monetary Fund and the European Union.
We expect a negative momentum in the European markets and in the EUR/USD in particular within the next few days until the meetings in Brussels at the end and decisions be made.

Forex daily review: Yen continues to drop

As expected, Monday was a fairly quiet day on the markets mostly tied with trade. The yen is a little bit of the dollar win, but has since then again these gains in the early part of the Asian session. Tuesday could see that the action in the USD crosses, although with US consumer confidence reports come at 10: 00 am EST. Euro leaders are finally come to a Greek aid and release begins $43.7 billion in the form of loans to Greece in December.

US consumer confidence report comes today at 10: 00 EST, which could offer a pop in the dollar, if the actual number of beats estimates by 73.1. However, the previous reading was been 72.2, with the uncertainty of the elections on an uptick in the numerous polls show U.S. consumer confidence. A combination of low unemployment, an improvement in the housing market and an easing of banking services all are to help the return of optimism in the U.S. consumer. Reading was last months 72.2 0.8 points lower than the consensus, but the greenback expected, only lost 21 pips on the post report. Given the recent consumer reports in the United States the positive mood is not surprising, if consumer confidence report to the U.S. lift.
With Euro Guide finally consent to the € unlock 43.7 billion Greek help, accept Spain agree, as well as help and uncertainty (partly) removed from the euro-zone image, we can expect some strength again on the euro. In fact, it has already strengthened against the yen in Asian trade. The good news has strengthened also exchanges in the entire Asian region and similar head is designed for the United States and Europe a possible exception to the strength of the euro is EUR/USD cross, which could take a dive if U.S. consumer confidence coming in stronger than expected.

Compared to the news of the appointment of Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney as the next head of the Bank of England has losses versus the EUR and USD. In Asian trading, the GBP against the JPY higher also is. Canadian dollar, pound dealers traders were pleased with the announcement, the Loonie, sold brings uncertainty about Mr. Carney spare some Skittishness on the CAD market.

Talks of easing by BoJ Members earlier this week a Greek package agreed and the appointment of Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney as the next head of the Bank of England help have to send all, the yen against all major currencies in Asian trading with low serves. Although the stock market lower today opened in Tokyo, the Greek aid sent messages back into positive territory along with most other Asian markets. The MSCI Asia-Pacific is led by a rise of Korean stocks in three weeks, now 1 percent to the highest level. The opening of Europe should send, that the yen still lower against European currencies and a positive assessment of the U.S. consumer confidence in the U.S. market to do the same.

Forex daily review: Black US consumer spending will start Friday

With the exception of eurozone meetings, which continued in Europe, a quiet day for economic reports, with something bigger from each country will be Monday.  Apart from all the news from the eurozone Summit, we should see a relatively quiet day of trading.  The yen opened stronger today in the first hour of trading in Asia, despite reports from the BoJ, that monetary easing is on the horizon, the yen weakness in an upward trend 3 + year was.  Since the first pop was calm and flat.  Expect that similar movements for, London and New York with open discharge EUR on the basis of the results of the Spanish elections.  Total, Monday should be the day-bound area.
You expect with a lack of news today and the likelihood that any solution to the problem of the pending fiscal cliff from Washington is virtually zero, that a dollar range bound.  The only exception would be if positive news about the Greek bailout from Europe came, however, as the most positive derivation is already baked in the EUR/USD, no profits on the 1.3000 considered profit-taking opportunities will be most likely.
More uncertainty from the euro-zone has snapped upward trend of the euro last week.  Pro-independence groups in Spain won regional elections spark uncertainty about the political climate in Spain and the possibility of the country a request for a financial rescue package to move.  This, together with the current inability of the State and Government of the euro area on a practice some for Greece the euro again in a weak position has relative to the world's most important currencies.  Economists world speculate that even if a Greek thing is made today, Spain still could the election results and uncertainty from to weaken the euro currency.


Considering the record today you will find low volatility, lack of news and weakening which should trend in the second half of last week for GBP in the lower pound drift and range remain bound.  The weakness of the euro definitely affects GBP and there is little reason to change today.  EUR/GBP has been bound area over the weekend, changing between. 8080 and. 8095, no change since the Asian session open.
In early trading on the Asian session, the yen showed strength against all major currencies against the weakening trend, which last week dominated trading.  Much of the strength of the yen has however been blamed on technical oversold levels and profit taking, pointed out that the yen its slide this week could continue.  BoJ Governor Masaaki Shirakawa reiterated his stance that monetary easing alone can not Japan's deflationary environment help, but many other members of the BoJ would the a weaker Yen made clear active Mr Shirakawa the term be followed once, as Governor ends next month.

Forex daily review: US fiscal cliff? Not in AUD/CAD

The fear of the US fiscal Cliff moves a gang after the U.S. presidential election. The heavy selling on the stock exchange in the past week came from real estate investment funds, asset managers and traders who sold the stocks at the end of the year 2012 as we. Barack Obama is to meet Congressional leaders in today's meeting so that all of the updates from the meeting of the U.S. indices and the dollar on the foreign exchange market can touch
China is Zhu Guangyo (Vice Finanace Minister) which could weigh U.S. fiscal Cliff around 1.2% on China's economic growth a possible reason for the heavy at the time of writing this article in EUR/USD sell. Meet the focus today on Barack Obama and the German lower House of Parliament votes on budget 2013.

Due to the light economic calendar and the fact that next week to become the great sessions I'm choice on AUD/CAD 4 hr chart. There is a pretty strong uptrend in the FX cross, is limited by the recent weakness. Strong gains are likely to be seen in AUD/CAD.

Forex daily review: Pound will remain strong in the U.S. are thank you

Feature price action in the currency markets the U.S. traders of food today in celebration of the Thanksgiving Turkey and a sharp decline in the market and the possibility of choppy. Nevertheless, there are a variety of PMI reports from Europe, as well as the sales in the retail sector, reported in Canada.

Wednesday saw the dollar through the United States of trading session to improve, although it has fallen again to the previous level. It's continued strength against the euro and YEN, as long as the slowdown compared to the GBP and CHF. No expected change in one of these trends on this holiday in the United States

While the euro Wednesday has recovered from the worst decline, it is still, that against all currency weaker in the Asian session's.

How traders look reactionary policy in the EU in response to the Greek debt problems continue to to continue the basic expectations for the region bearish pressure on EUR. In fact, although the EU a $10 billion bond buyback plan for Greece announced, continue to the Division for the EU, the ECB and the IMF undermine the confidence of investors in the EU zone.

Technically EUR suspended majors in the vicinity of SMA 20 day compared to and with the reduced trading volume today it is expected that, during this session, holiday will consolidate euro.

The great British pound continue to strength against all currencies they show, after the BoE that they are not cut interest rates now are known, on Wednesday extend its quantitative easing (QE) programme. Although the BoE would also risk warned that inflation will rise, this charge until on the sterling do not prevent traders from. The GBP has power down during the Asian session, but an uptick is likely to resume trading after European markets.

The Japanese Yen was this week under pressure against all currencies and the reverse probably not even now, or perhaps any time soon. The yen is currently endangered break through multi year trend levels in place since 2009.

The combination of Japanese elections and the possibility of increased moves up through the BoJ finally put pressure on a Yen that is far too long, much too strong. In fact, there is nothing in the economic picture in Japan, supported a strong yen, but it has continued to strengthen in the last 3 years.

When the yen was a reflection of the Japanese economy would be easy it about to be weaker, and the BoJ 30% active, taking into account its own QE and trying to devalue the yen, we believe further weakness is in the store. It is said, with a public holiday in Japan today and the Thanksgiving holiday to the yen, United States will likely remain stable on this day at least.

Forex daily review: A temporary respite for the BOJ, while more easing seems on the way

Continued uncertainty over the US budget talks is the greatest influence on the prices for gold (XAU/USD), the rise in prices during the session earlier Asian market transformed. Investor concerns over the upcoming U.S. financial situation is the main aspect save the price in the coming days.

Despite reports that the global demand declined after gold in the third quarter of 2012, as central banks around the world continue to ease monetary policy seems the prospects for XAU/USD on a strengthening to show of the precious metal.

The Japanese Yen hit a seven-month trough against the US dollar as expectations rose that the Central Government approved the new Japanese Government, which is led by Shinzo Abe, (when the Liberal Democratic actually next month should win party elections), to ease its monetary policy and to inject more money into the markets to boost the Japanese economy. By these rumors, the Asian market with a bull market have spike Asian indices Nikkei average rose to a 9,153.2 that break easily--which responds 200-day moving average.


Today's session is expected to remain relatively quiet before the meetings of the Eurogroup and the EU Summit, which takes place later this week. While the global economic stage is currently bombarded with a series of questions. The budget crisis deficit of euro-zone holds to decide a threat to strong turbulence on the markets, as well as the fact that Greece still remains difficulties his bailout targets to meet and Spain on a rescue package. Current economic data from the euro zone, which suggests that Germany has begun, the continuing crisis are affected raises flags and provide for investors.

If an agreement by the legislator is not done, the United States on a path be for automatic spending cuts and tax increases. This is noted on the market as a concern, as it could be the trigger the recession in the United States brings back. Dealers should continue to market surveillance for adverse events and trade wisely.

Forex daily review: Report on the 23.11.2012

Market report November 23, 2012

Friday expect another slow day with choppy action after the Thanksgiving holiday in the Europe of the EU Summit, will be United States dealer hope for good news, while Canada free month core CPI month, expected to grow by 0.2 percent.  We conclude that Canada has missed the expected core CPI m/m 4 of the past 5 months here could miss send and the Loonie lower on the increasing perception of CAD weakness.
US dollars: Black starts Friday consumer spending
The USD was weaker and stronger against the JPY against EUR and GBP while yesterday holiday is thinly traded U.S. session.  Since then the euro stronger and can make a test of the technically important 1.2900 level in EUR/USD.  The GBP and JPY have retraced their respective gains and losses, and from the outset was the 22nd relatively unchanged.
Initial retail sales reports could be a bit as offer a pop in US dollars, if they are strong holiday could show sales on the way to optimistic expectations of another record year for spending in the United States to a rise in the US consumer spending, which would be positive for the U.S. economy and the strength of the US dollar.
Euro: Continued uncertainty in the EU Summit
After the end of Thursday slightly higher against major currencies, EUR has seen consolidation for the beginning of the Asian session not surprisingly given the holiday in Japan.  Uncertainty about the future of Greece and mixed messages from the EU Summit continue to EUR heavy burden after it a run on the technically important 1.2900 level on the EUR/USD yesterday and not to achieve that all important level.
British pound: record low volatility
GBP rose sharply against the euro yesterday amid the worries about the future of the eurozone.  In other trade, GBP lost ground against the USD after the thinly-traded U.S. holiday session.  It is technically against the JPY important 132,00 levels dropped after the test.  With no news from the UK today and volatility on 15-year low in the cable could today the only based come larger movements in the EUR/GBP on reports from the EU Summit.
Japanese Yen: Japanese markets closed today
Slow Friday in the Asian session, the yen has seen mostly consolidation against European currencies and the rise on the US dollar and the great British pound.  Japanese markets are closed for trading as the country the day which celebrates work.

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