Saturday, December 15, 2012

Forex daily review: Noda dissolves the House of Commons and prepares for elections, USD/JPY higher spikes

USD/JPY cheered in the early parts of the European session, many traders leave the perhaps false fears on FX confused intervention by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) raised. Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda pledged to dissolve Parliament during the Asian session, and head for snap elections in December despite polls forecasting who may lose his party. The market was this political movement by 16 November expected, as Noda said to dissolve the Parliament by Friday, when the opposition agreed to key reforms.
Shinzo Abe said on Thursday that the BOJ unlimited easing measures to reach an inflation target of 2% - 3% to Japan deflation pull out should allow. As the latest polls prefer him, win the snap elections, the market fears that the BOJ now employ aggressive easing measures and dumped the yen against a basket of currencies. USD/JPY gained + 1.98% (157 PIPs) as we head into the European session.
The ruling Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) agreed to head snap elections on December 16 with campaigns that begin on December 4.

Recent gains in dollar-Yen-fit perfectly mean long term technical analysis for the couple on July 19, 2012.
The rating agency Fitch revised the Outlook for Ireland on negative, confirm the rating of BBB + stable. Although it seems that the bullish assessment action can add mood on global markets is a bold reminder of Moody's investors service to Britain.
Moody's credit risk annual report according to possibly Britain's AAA rating due to weak economic data and risk the European debt crisis. Moody's wrote, that they will change the 2013 British AAA rating and Outlook in the first few months. Today's retail sales will be given by global investors extra attention data at 09: 30 GMT, as a further deficit should be accompanied with the heavy sales of GBP against major currencies.
For the US meeting, State Manufacturing can claims of unemployment and the Empire index is distorted at 13: 30 GMT due to Hurricane Sandy. Power outages and damaged factories can contribute to a moderate decline in the manufacturing sector, which can stress the SP500 today's trading session.
Yesterday's Federal open market Committee (FOMC) statement revealed that members want more quantitative easing (QE) continue a series of fed, when the current operation twist ends in December. I expect continued moderate gains in gold as a result that suits my technical analysis for the precious metal on November 9.
China is considering securities regulatory Commission (CSRC), a short sale system extend, absorb funds from various institutions before you allow loans to their customers on short selling brokerages. The new system can be started before the end of this year. As more funds for shorting purposes available, this could very well intensify bearish market sentiment on global markets.
XI Jinping was elected General Secretary of the Communist Party of China and the next President of China be replaced likely to Hu Jintao. Li Keqiang, now expected to end March 2013 will be the new Prime Minister.

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